- guardian.co.uk,
- Friday November 24 2000 16:52 GMT
It is easy to tell the story in terms of Labour majorities slashed: down from 18,680 to 4,426 in Preston; down from 15,154 to 6,337 in the Westminster contest at Anniesland. (You can't make any comparison for West Bromwich, since in May 1997 Betty Boothroyd stood as the Speaker Seeking Re-election and the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats did not put up candidates against her).
But these aren't the statistics that really matter. The lower the turnouts in byelections, the less figures for majorities and for swing from one side to the other tell you about the real electoral world. And these turnouts were very low: not as abject as at some of the previous byelections in this parliament, but a mere 38% in Scotland, 30% in Lancashire and 28% in the Midlands.
In these circumstances it makes sense to look at the figures in a less conventional way, and concentrate less on each party's share of the vote than on the proportion of the electorate which bothered to turn out for each of them. Analysed in this fashion, the story at Preston was this: around 13% of those entitled to vote took the trouble to go to the polling stations and mark their crosses for Labour. Some 7% did the same for the Tories; while 70% stayed at home.
In West Bromwich, the figures were very similar: 14% of those entitled to vote gave their support to Labour, 9% turned out for the Tories, 72% stayed away.
In Glasgow Anniesland, the figures for the Westminster election show 20% turning out for Labour, 8% for the Scottish National Party and 4% for the Tories, with 62% preferring to do something else. In the election for the Scottish parliament, the SNP did rather better than in the Westminster contest and Labour a little worse, but again the stayaways were the majority tendency at 62%.
So these contests were very much a minority preoccupation. In so far as one can detect the mood of the nation it seems to be this. People are not enthusiastic about this government. Of those who voted Labour in May 1997, roughly 70% defected in Preston this time, (a figure which no doubt reflects disputes in the local party over who should be its candidate), roughly 60% in West Bromwich, and just about half in Anniesland.
But there is no great enthusiasm either for trying to turn Labour out. In the great byelections of the Thatcher years, which helped engineer her eviction from office 10 years ago this week, what struck terror in Conservative hearts was not just Tory defections but the positive surge in Labour or Lib Dem support. There was little sign of a similar process here. The SNP vote in Anniesland, a seat where these great byelection fighters must have had some hope of making a splash, was down on May 1997. The Tories were no real threat to Labour - even in West Bromwich, where because of the reintroduction of party politics after the Boothroyd years they should have been raring to go.
In that context - and especially after the autumn of discontent which shook Labour so badly - Mr Blair today may be feeling a sense of reprieve. On the other hand, when he turns to the morning papers, and the headlines on Europe and beef and petrol prices (once more), he may well have started to feel queasy again.
Useful links
Clean sweep for Labour in byelection test
Full results: Anniesland
Full results: Preston
Full results: West Bromwich West
Map: where were the elections?
Useful links
Labour party
Conservative party
Liberal Democrats
Scottish National party
