- guardian.co.uk, Thursday December 28 2000 01.27 GMT
By modern standards he still enjoys an astonishing dominance in the opinion polls, 10% ahead in this month's Guardian/ICM poll, a 13.1% lead according to Gallup in the Daily Telegraph, the latter figure almost exactly the percentage lead which delivered Labour's extraordinary 179-seat landslide on May 1 1997.
The government's protracted honeymoon ended in 1999 amid familiar problems over jobs, crime, ministerial squabbles, the NHS, road and rail chaos, the dome. Not even baby Leo's arrival prevented the healthy onset of political mortality. Mr Blair is no longer as trusted as he was.
Yet William Hague, fighting his first leader's election (as is Charles Kennedy), seems unable to profit more than briefly from Labour's discomfort. His populist forays on asylum, on Europe and even the murder of Damilola Taylor strike an uneasy note, even among many Tories.
To survive as Tory leader with a chance of victory in 2005-6, Mr Hague knows he must cut Labour's lead to below 100. He must also quash Liberal Democrat pretensions to be Labour's near-permanent, shot-calling progressive partner.
Labour ought to be brimming with confidence. Yet there is unease. Every minister knows that the three centre-left landslides of the 20th century - 1906, 1945, 1966 - collapsed entirely or were hamstrung at the next election. Has Labour done enough to prevent mass abstentions or defections next time round?
With probably just a few months to go, the Guardian has tested the water in two key marginals which Mr Hague must win to survive, let alone be prime minister. He still has a long way to go.
