- guardian.co.uk, Thursday December 28 2000 01.27 GMT
"Oh Stephen, I saw you walking by and was so hoping you'd drop in," the woman says as she rushes up to her young MP. Stephen Twigg beams at the woman, asks after the residents in her nursing home - he knows them all - and is on his way.
If the general election were purely a personality contest, Mr Twigg would romp home once again in Enfield Southgate, the north London seat he snatched from Michael Portillo in 1997. Hardly a soul has a harsh word for the Oxford-educated local boy whose daily pounding of Enfield's streets has paid dividends.
The battle in Enfield Southgate will, however, be tough as both parties seek to win the seat which came to symbolise the Tory meltdown of 1997. Were you up for Portillo? was the title of the best-known book of the general election, which pictured Mr Twigg rolling his eyes in disbelief moments after unseating one of the country's most unpopular Tories. Mr Portillo announced that the Tories had suffered a "truly terrible night" after his 15,545 majority was transformed into a Labour majority of 1,433 on a 17.4% swing.
Labour would love to hold Enfield to show that Tony Blair can still capture the imagination of comfortable suburban voters who kept the Conservatives in power for nearly a generation. But John Flack, the Tory candidate who needs a swing of 1.55%, knows that he must win back Enfield if his party is to be seen as a credible force.
The constituency, which is at the top of London's Piccadilly line, is sharply divided. Labour will write off the northern tip, around the smart Trent Park, where owners in million-pound properties have shown little appetite for New Labour. The Tories will write off the most southerly part, just below the north circular road, where voters in small flats traditionally support Labour. The contest will take place between the two extremes where there is a sizeable Liberal Democrat vote up for grabs and thousands of floating voters. The signs for both sides are mixed.
Labour has been defeated in the two main elections in the constituency since the last general election - the 1999 European elections and last summer's London assembly elections. Although a loyal Blairite, Mr Twigg, 34, has paid heed and is conciliatory towards Ken Livingstone. Calling for a deal between the mayor and government over tube funding, Mr Twigg says: "I have been impressed by Ken's record and see no reason why he should not be returned to the Labour party."
If Mr Twigg succeeds in neutralising the "Ken factor" he could find himself punished for the sins of the Labour-controlled Enfield council which has angered voters by increasing council tax while reducing services. If the council's performance damages Mr Twigg, his Tory opponent could be hurt by concerns about the Tory performance at a national level. Freda Burnett, a nursing home resident who voted Conservative in 1997, said: "I might turn against the Tories next time because there seems to be a lot of petty bickering."
Voters in the constituency, which has a high proportion of Cypriots and Asians, do not seem too bothered by William Hague's interventions on crime and race. But traditional Tory voters harbour serious doubts about his competence.
One Asian man, who abandoned the Tories for the first time in 1997, said he was unlikely to switch back. The man, who asked not to be named, said: "Hague is not up to the level one expects of a prime minister. He is not in John Major's league and has a very short time to change his ways."
In the face of these signals, the Tory candidate insists he is on course for victory. A businessman and admirer of Norman Tebbit, John Flack, 43, said: "The Labour party made a huge effort to get Portillo out in 1997. I cannot see anyone being so motivated to stop John Flack getting in. I look forward to seeing Stephen Twigg in the Commons - when he comes back at a byelection in another seat."
As a Eurosceptic and fervent supporter of Mr Hague's Keep the Pound campaign, Mr Flack will hope to scoop the 1,342 votes which went to Jimmy Goldsmith's Referendum party in 1997.
Any gains on that front could, however, be cancelled by Lib Dem spoiling tactics. The party has yet to select a candidate, suggesting that Enfield may have been pencilled in for an informal Lib-Lab electoral deal.
1997 results
Twigg, S (Lab) 20,570; Portillo, M (Con) 19,137; Browne, J (LD) 4,966; Luard, N (Ref) 1,342; Others: 518
Lab maj 1,433
